G4 Predictions - I predict in 20 yrs...

[Starly]

Yeah, I think the poor quality and massive quantities will really make them an undesirable collectible toy in years to come.  There's nothing special about them... they just look so cheap and small.  You see a beautiful G1 and you can understand why someone put it in a rotating UV-film case with LED lights shining on it - it's a gorgeous collectible!

i disagree entirely.
but opinions.
g1s are toys too.

[shabbychicdee]

oh fun post
pinkie pie is definitely the new peachy and yes i agree with a lot said like the fashion styles will be like piecing together all the big brother and princess pieces

ditzy bubbles drama Pony looks to be the next mimic type pony already, prototypes will keep there value though they won't go to high as most are not one of's eg trixie shy and lyra rays there are heaps of.
wave 2 blind bags will also keep there value cos they are so htf.
also i see the sosoft newborns being like the g1 ones as most collectors aren't interested in them at the moment so its just toddlers and wee little kids getting them now so they will become htf in good condtion in years to come for g4 collectors in the future wanting to round them all up.

personally i fink its hard to predict g4 against g3 at the moment cos its just early days and though they are very cheaply made g4's has a very popular cartoon and i finding some waves are not staying in shops for long and other items are in shops for a long time and everywhere you go.
and maybe all those g3 collectors were buying everything released now alot of them are selling all their collections so alot of ponies are too easy to get hold of and havent held the value because of that......may be

[banditpony]

Yeah, I think the poor quality and massive quantities will really make them an undesirable collectible toy in years to come.  There's nothing special about them... they just look so cheap and small.  You see a beautiful G1 and you can understand why someone put it in a rotating UV-film case with LED lights shining on it - it's a gorgeous collectible!

Aesthetically, I prefer the look of G4s to G1s. So, I think they are gorgeous collectibles too. :p

[Cadence]

G4s are definitely cute, but I agree that the poor quality/mismatched heads could cause a lack of appeal for the toys in the future.
However, because FIM is so big now, it could also become a classic - think Marvel comic book superheroes and their action figure counterparts here. So you never know, FIM could be rereleased a few generations from now and even the common g4 toys could become sought-after "vintage collectibles". Also, because of the poor quality, perhaps a lot of them will simply be thrown out by kids or people from the brony fandom who have moved on and don't resell/customize - so we could be underestimating the rarities of G4 ponies.

Personally, I think the design-a-Lunas in MIB condition may become htf because she'll probably be bought up by and customized by Luna's many fans. I'd like to say the Celestia and raised-leg standard brushables may be slightly more valuable too, because the moulds are different from the common standard playful pony one. But perhaps that is just wishful thinking

[goddessofpeep]

I predict the following items will hold or possibly increase their value:
Anything that's exclusive to a non-USA market
Ponies that were particularly popular, but not released in large amounts, or for very long
Some store exclusives if they're of ponies that weren't released elsewhere
Unique ponies that had distribution problems when new
Some of the more interesting and never released prototype ponies that are floating around

Ponies with multiple released(Main 6) will probably be mostly worthless unless the variation is something very, very special.

The only wild card in this is the brony community, and as it is unlike anything that's been seen in the pony community before, it's impossible to say how they'll affect future prices. 


As for the G3s, yes they had quality issues, and yes there were a lot of them, but I don't think those are only reasons why they're not increasing in value.  The main factor really is that of all the pony lines so far, the G3s had the most adult collectors collecting them.  When the G1s came out, they were almost exclusively purchased as toys for children.  Any MOC ponies that survived were almost always accidental(gifts dumped in a box and forgotten for 20 years), or old store stock.  G1s were made in huge numbers too, it's just that nobody was thinking of them as a serious collectible back then, so very few survived in decent condition.  MLP was my favorite toy, and I remember how many of them there were back then.   The MLP section in most toy stores was huge, and I remember you could even buy them in super markets!  MLP was a very well selling toy back in the day.  Every kid I knew had at least a handful of them since they were everywhere and pretty darn cheap compared to things like Barbie.  And then you had the non-USA ponies with lower numbers of ponies produced for a smaller market.  Couple that with no way for children in the USA to even know about the great stuff places like Europe and South America were getting, very few of those ponies survived to make it into the collecting community as well.

G2s had some collectors buying them, but most of their value is due to the the distribution of the line.  The vast majority of the line was only available in Europe, and the final year was really only available in one or two countries over there.  Once the ponies dried up in stores, it became nearly impossible to track them down.  If you weren't collecting during that tiny window, and you didn't keep up with it, you were in for a long haul waiting to see if what you were looking for ever popped up in the community or on ebay.

G3s had a very healthy distribution all over the world, and they had A TON of adult collectors buying them and keeping them in pristine condition.  Since the collecting community is so large and so well informed, it wasn't too hard to get even the ponies that were exclusive to other countries or store specials either on ebay, or through sites like the Arena and the MLPTP.  And many of these ponies were either kept MIP, or at the very least never played with.  Since there are SO MANY excellent examples of these ponies out there, and a vast majority of them are owned by members of the pony community, it's really easy to find what you want at a cheap price.  I couldn't tell you if the number of G3s were fewer, greater, or the same as the number of G1s that were produced.  However, the number of MIP/un-played with G3s available FAR exceeds the number of perfect or MIP G1s.  And with the internet and the collecting community, tracking them down was a lot easier.  I think that is what is lowing the prices more than anything else.  It's not that the demand isn't there, it's that the supply is massive and easily accessible.

G1s also had some quality issues(regrind being a big one) and design flaws(flutter ponies...), and they were made in large numbers as well, but they didn't have a dedicated bunch of people buying up large quantities of them and keeping them in the package.  And they didn't have a huge network of people sharing information and distributing exclusive ponies to other people who couldn't get them locally.

[hathorcat]

I 100% agree with everything goddessofpeep has said. And the reasons given on why G3s are not holding value are the exact same reasons I think G4s in general will also not hold value or simply not increase in the years to come. 

I love G4s they are cute and my judgement is nothing on the style or the ponies themselves. But I also thing once we move on to a new generation, once the cartoon finishes and once bronies are perhaps no longer bronies while there will be a "fandom" aspect to this generation we have never seen before, they will in toy collecting terms reflect G3. Collectors will have picked up the ponies they are interested in when they were in stores, there are more collectors than ever before and therefore more ponies and more MIB ponies in the hands of collectors. And unfortunately with a fandom the size of this particular one, there will be plenty of people who become no longer interested and sell collections - thereby flooding the market a little. Even the Fair/Con pony was released in greater numbers than we had ever seen before...but that was due to the even larger market than MLP has had in the past of course.

I dont doubt that some of the non US ponies and the super hard to find, even now accessories, such as the orange carriage saply posted will hold the higher end of prices, but I dont think any are every going to be in the G1 range of hard to find.

[HoustonCollector72]

I can see that orange carriage from the French exclusive Carousel Boutique being ridiculously hard to find. Almost sorry I sold mine...

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(pics from strawberry reef)

  so true This was my grail that made me join the Arena LOL  and I came across on an ebay auction and lost it, and  I had to go get it from Amazon in Germany and a super nice Arena member made it possible .

[LightingElectricDream]

Fashion style Apple Jack will be more rare than Mimic and More collectible.

[kissthethunder]

Yeah, I think the poor quality and massive quantities will really make them an undesirable collectible toy in years to come.  There's nothing special about them... they just look so cheap and small.  You see a beautiful G1 and you can understand why someone put it in a rotating UV-film case with LED lights shining on it - it's a gorgeous collectible!

i disagree entirely.
but opinions.
g1s are toys too.

I have to say, G1's may also be toys, but I agree with what Hathor said. The quality control issues on the average brushable G4 makes them pretty undesirable in collectible terms. I see the Funko figures being nice in the future, and the fashion style ponies I think will hold up well, but the G1's didn't have the internet to aid collectors as they were being made.

I think in general, in terms of collectable value, the non character brushables will be sought after, but the funko vinyls and the fashion styles will hold their appeal. 

[Sunset]

Fashion style Apple Jack will be more rare than Mimic and More collectible.

Only if they don't re-release her!

[cloud_weaver]

Fashion style Apple Jack will be more rare than Mimic and More collectible.

Only if they don't re-release her!

I'm guessing she'll be rereleased.  She's been popping up a couple of times on TaoBao recently.  ^_^

[Aitsuki]

Yeah, I think the poor quality and massive quantities will really make them an undesirable collectible toy in years to come.  There's nothing special about them... they just look so cheap and small.  You see a beautiful G1 and you can understand why someone put it in a rotating UV-film case with LED lights shining on it - it's a gorgeous collectible!

Mmm... I don't really agree. I personally can't stand G1 ponies... they just aren't my cup of tea. I love G4, they're so different than all the other styles of pony toy.... G1s look like they have bloated bottoms to me. So it's all subjective in this case.... I think what really determines value is what someone is willing to value it at, right??? Like, someone will pay hundreds for a pony.... that's the value to them. That's what it's worth to them, because they care.

[brightberry]

I'm pretty sure that in 20 years, nostalgia going to hit bronies and today's kids and they'll go looking.  But I'm also sure they won't have to look very hard.  There are too many G4 adult collectors buying the toys and keeping them as mint as possible.  And because there are so many G4s available, they aren't going to cost much.  If there are any "rare" ponies, I think they will be anything (ponies or accessories) that are hard to find now.

That's my prediction. 

[lovesbabysquirmy]

It's not the design aesthetic of the G1s that makes them seem more collectible... it's the materials they are made out of. 

With G4, bodies and heads are different plastics that deteriorate quickly, eyes are slapped on decal-style, symbols are only on one side, hair is much sparser... so on and so forth. 

While G1s have held up pretty well over 30 years, I keep hearing about G3s and G4s that have consistent deterioration issues.  I don't think most G4s will be in great condition in 30 years, that's all.

[Mermaid]

It's not the design aesthetic of the G1s that makes them seem more collectible... it's the materials they are made out of. 

With G4, bodies and heads are different plastics that deteriorate quickly, eyes are slapped on decal-style, symbols are only on one side, hair is much sparser... so on and so forth. 

While G1s have held up pretty well over 30 years, I keep hearing about G3s and G4s that have consistent deterioration issues.  I don't think most G4s will be in great condition in 30 years, that's all.

I totally agree with this!