Possibly, but there's so little way to be sure that I'd think "probably" would be something of a stretch. Cheerilee was in both McDonald's waves, and she's a semi-major show character and a main G3.5 character and the like so that all makes sense. The BB wave 1 cutie mark is simpler than the BB wave 7 cutie mark (or the brushable cutie mark), and the McDonald's cutie mark does roughly match the BB wave 1 cutie mark, but since all the McDonald's cutie marks are simplified versions of the proper ones, it could just as easily have been based on the brushable cutie mark and simplified independently from there. And even if the sole resource McDonald's had for planning their 2012 toys was the 2010 blind bags, why not go with Flower Wishes or Roseluck or Lemon Hearts who were all from the show, or Minty whom they were familiar with already?