Question about Taoboa ponies

[Sunset]

This question strictly has to do with ponies found on Taoboa that are later confirmed as official releases.  So out of curiosity, does there seem to be an average amount of time between when a pony is first seen on Taoboa to when she is officially confirmed as being released?  And I'll take seeing her in packaging as official confirmation.

So for example, does anyone remember about how long it was between when we first saw Mrs. Cake and when she was first seen in packaging?

Have other ponies taken about the same length of time or is it all over the place?

I am very curious, because Minty B, Sparkle Pinkie, and sparkle Wysteria have been floating around for quite a while now in reasonable numbers and we have yet to see any of them in packaging.

[Lady Starflower]

I am wondering about these girls too. I can't remember how log it was before we saw packaging for Mrs Cake and Twirly Treats.
However the new TRU favorites set is due to come out in Aug and we just recently started seeing the ponies in that set (Queen Chrysalis JUST made an appearance) so I'm guessing a couple months?

Also there is still speculation that Minty B is replacing Lyra in that set since she hasn't appeared yet (the toy show pics showed her in the set and she was much darker than the one released now).

[Shiromisa]

Hmmm, I'd be interested to know that, because the same is true of the FS Pinkie Goth I'm getting.

[Shaymin568]

Now Queen Chrysalis has popped up. Since they're due for the fall 2013, I guess only a few months. Though I don't know about what would become of Goth/Black Tie Pinkie..

[BrightIdea]

I think the lag between a prototype/intial run and a mass production is usually around 3 months, but I have a feeling that can vary.

Here's a few examples:
Prototype Cupcake 03401 Dec 6 2010
Regular Release 10661 March 7 2011
3 months and 1 day

Drama Pony Prototype 13431 Dec 9, 2011
Regular Release 20831 Mar 24, 2012
3 months 15 days

If I had to guess an answer to your question, we probably would see a similar lag in products showing up in packaging. Maybe about 3 months for most of the Taobao ponies? There are a few ponies that don't even show up on Taobao and go straight to release, so it really does vary.

[partypony566]

Yeah a few months seems to be the norm

[Lady Starflower]

So we *should* find out about the glitter Pinkie and Wysteria soon...

[achab1984]

I wonder what they wills how up also in the store. I know that I am going to be kicking myself for spending that $50.00 on the Minty B!

[hathorcat]

I agree that if you were to take an over all average, 3 months does seem to be the difference between appearing on Taobao and hitting shelves.

But unfortunately I also dont think its fair to assume an average. There are some ponies which we see on Taobao only after they hit retail shelves not to mention all the releases which never showed up on Taobao at all! And there are also some which take much longer or to date have not been seen at all.

Its a tough to say that time is an indicator of whether we are going to get something or not - especially when we are still in the middle of a manufactured line. 

[cleverLC]

Also there is still speculation that Minty B is replacing Lyra in that set since she hasn't appeared yet (the toy show pics showed her in the set and she was much darker than the one released now).

If she doesn't, then I'm making my Lyra into a Minty.  I already have a Lyra, I don't like having duplicates, and a G4 Minty would make my day!