The MLP Arena
Pony Talk => Pony Corral => Topic started by: LadyMoondancer on November 18, 2017, 09:59:44 PM
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I feel like the hard to find items of the future will be the non-Mane-Six ponies from the very start of the line, before a lot of kids knew about it on TV (Honeybuzz, Snowcatcher, etc) and the Breezies because they seem quite fragile compared to regular ponies, being made of hard plastic.
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I don't think they'll be hard to find in general, but I have a feeling the newer ponies with poseable wings are going to be similar to Flutter Ponies in that they'll be difficult to find in the future with their wings. I have All About Fluttershy and it's very easy to accidentally pop her wings off. I have a feeling many kids will end up losing the wings to theirs, and thus there'll be a bunch of All About/pirate set pegasi (+Twilight) around without their wings years into the future!
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The original ponies with bangs (RD, Cheerilee, Twilight, AJ & Daisy Dreams), Rainbow Flash and Sweetie Swirl are my bet. I already see less of these girls in lots.
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A lot of them are already hard to find. There's all of the original non-mane six ponies, and of course there's other randomly rare ponies such as Holly Dash, Ploomette and Maud Pie.
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I've wondered about this too. I agree with the early non Mane 6 ponies. So many times I could have picked up Twinkleshine but for some reason I didn't. I also think that the first small/playful pony size Luna that was in the Target exclusive set pink Celestia will be hard to find.
Ponyfan
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All the ones that are already hard to find.
Euro-Hollydash
Feathermay
Water Cutie Alicorns
Ploomette
Blossomforth
GoH Daring Do
GoH Queen Chrysalis
Any mainline toys that aren't main characters and fan favorites essentially
Queen Novo
Haven Bay (because parents don't wanna spend that much, and its not a good financial time for a lotta people right now)
That exclusive music unicorn, can't remember her name atm.
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i think star swirl and unicorn twilight
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I don't think they'll be hard to find in general, but I have a feeling the newer ponies with poseable wings are going to be similar to Flutter Ponies in that they'll be difficult to find in the future with their wings. I have All About Fluttershy and it's very easy to accidentally pop her wings off. I have a feeling many kids will end up losing the wings to theirs, and thus there'll be a bunch of All About/pirate set pegasi (+Twilight) around without their wings years into the future!
That was the first thought I had when I got this set. It'd be neat to see if people make replacement wings like they did for the flutterponies, though.
i think star swirl and unicorn twilight
Star Swirl yes, but unicorn Twilight maybe not? Unicorn Twilight with her full head of hair would definitely be hard to come across, maybe, because of all of the complaints regarding show accuracy not being represented and then the rise of hairstyle tutorials where you just chop the hair off.
But normally, I feel like she wouldn't be too hard to find. That was when the Brony fandom was pretty active, so those who sell off their collections in the future due to lack of interest might have some unicorn Twis mixed in if they got into the show before the Funko figures.
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I have a ton of unicorn twi...I don't think she'll ever be rare
Post Merge: November 19, 2017, 11:02:58 AM
Then again I think I have watercuties celestia and Luna too...
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I'm guessing the early non-Mane 6 ponies will be harder to find. They were not on the shelves long before it went to almost all Mane 6 all the time. It will depend how many were sold while they were available and how many were in overstock. Time will tell.
And I think G4 toys are not going to age as well as previous generations simply because of the materials and manufacturing practices.
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I have a ton of unicorn twi...I don't think she'll ever be rare
Post Merge: November 19, 2017, 11:02:58 AM
Then again I think I have watercuties celestia and Luna too...
I've got those two, they were at my Five Below stores for half off the original $10 price. I don't think they're too hard to come by, are they?
And I think G4 toys are not going to age as well as previous generations simply because of the materials and manufacturing practices.
It will be interesting to see G4s age...
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I got them at a toy store in the mall for original price it was a small shop I think is now out of business no idea the name it was hard to find watercuties at the time but once I did I stopped looking and that's when they were new so no clue
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I have a ton of unicorn twi...I don't think she'll ever be rare
Post Merge: November 19, 2017, 11:02:58 AM
Then again I think I have watercuties celestia and Luna too...
I've got those two, they were at my Five Below stores for half off the original $10 price. I don't think they're too hard to come by, are they?
No, those two were fairly easy to find, but the second wave with Cadance and Twilight were nearly impossible. I never saw them in the US at all - I had to get mine from someone in Canada and I don't think they were all that common there either.
Unicorn Twilight is very common though the version with bangs may eventually become hard to find.
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I agree with what a lot of others have mentioned, anything that is hard to find now will be hard to find in the future as well. Anything non mane 6, especially the earlier characters.
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I also think Wave 3 of pearly ponies, the last G4s before the reboot styles came out, will be hard to find. They only showed up in a few stores like Big Lots and Family Dollar.
Ponyfan
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I would say ponies with distribution issues. Holly Dash. Starswirl. Ponies that didn't get everywhere or maybe weren't even meant to and ones that were on shelves briefly, like Honeybuzz and Feather May and ponies like that. Maybe the third set of pearlies. But it depends whether G4 goes on to be a collectable in the same way as G1 is. It's a different kind of line right now - I guess we'll find out as time goes on.
I also think that actually some versions of the mane 6 might prove more hard to find than their non mane six set mates. Reason being that people already have a version of x pony and so don't buy the new version necessarily? So in some cases mane 6 will be dominant and common and yet there will probably be specific versions of those mane 6 which prove to be more difficult to find in the end.
For example with Monster High there are a lot of Cleo dolls, but I <3 Fashion Cleo is sought after, in demand and expensive where many of the others are not. I think that could happen for some of the Mane 6 ponies as well. And I think Rainbow Rocks Rarity may be one of those because she's both mane 6 and had distribution issues (she was in the set with Holly Dash).
I also remember there's an Easter Fluttershy that I saw in stores ages ago but she isn't mentioned much. Right now I think she's just another Fluttershy but it's that kind of Mane 6 pony that might be more sought after for serious collectors later.
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I would say ponies with distribution issues. Holly Dash. Starswirl. Ponies that didn't get everywhere or maybe weren't even meant to and ones that were on shelves briefly, like Honeybuzz and Feather May and ponies like that. Maybe the third set of pearlies. But it depends whether G4 goes on to be a collectable in the same way as G1 is. It's a different kind of line right now - I guess we'll find out as time goes on.
I also think that actually some versions of the mane 6 might prove more hard to find than their non mane six set mates. Reason being that people already have a version of x pony and so don't buy the new version necessarily? So in some cases mane 6 will be dominant and common and yet there will probably be specific versions of those mane 6 which prove to be more difficult to find in the end.
For example with Monster High there are a lot of Cleo dolls, but I <3 Fashion Cleo is sought after, in demand and expensive where many of the others are not. I think that could happen for some of the Mane 6 ponies as well. And I think Rainbow Rocks Rarity may be one of those because she's both mane 6 and had distribution issues (she was in the set with Holly Dash).
I also remember there's an Easter Fluttershy that I saw in stores ages ago but she isn't mentioned much. Right now I think she's just another Fluttershy but it's that kind of Mane 6 pony that might be more sought after for serious collectors later.
I agree with this but I'll add another wrinkle. Certain releases of the mane 6 might be hard to find but they might not be "expensive" in the same way as hard to find g1. Seems to me most people are happy with 1 or two versions of each character. Which means there might be less competition over the harder to find releases of characters that have been released more than 1 or 2 times.
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I also think Wave 3 of pearly ponies, the last G4s before the reboot styles came out, will be hard to find. They only showed up in a few stores like Big Lots and Family Dollar.
Ponyfan
Agreed. Of all the sets to distribute poorly...
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I was watching a YouTube video where someone opened a Rainbow Dash I'd never seen before, she was a pull and go toy who "flew" via wheels on her stomach. From a few years ago I think. I wonder if mane 6 toys like that, which were less widespread or popular, will be rarer.
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A good topic!
Plot future buys and who to hang onto, based on the good opinions and ideas already being posted here. I see lots of good possibilities so far, but would like to add more.
I limit this list to stuff that's not like "oh it was eu only" or something, because that's unfair out of the gate & others already mentioned it. (So, like no FS Daisy Jo, etc)
Rainbow Power alicorn Twi & Cadence-
These have the rainbow confetti all over them and soft, big, piercework wings that are 100% easy to ruin. You'll never see these again in good condition unless they're in the MIB.
All About Soarin' - This one just came out and already nobody can find him.
He looks like a messed up Shining Armor but a peg instead of a uni.
ALL water cuties- I agree with the alicorns, but I imagine all them will be uncommon especially Amethyst Star. Water toys don't seem to last well in rough n tumble toybox conditions.
The Soarin from the Wonderbolts 6 pack - It was the final one they released with the oldstyle heads, plus, it's Soarin who is barely in the show. The set was also costly when new, so probably not everybody got it anyway also because it shoveled out ANOTHER pinkie and fluttershy for no reason.
The light up toys. Cadence didn't release right, I don't think. Even that light up glamour rarity because her hair has such a bad quality that if she gets played with at all, the toy will ruin...and you can't get the head off without destroying her cause the horn light is on a cord thru her neck to body. Plus they are more costly when new so it prevents parents from buying them limiting their sales. That, and it's a re-re-re-re-re-release anyway, there was no new light up char.
Honey Rays with the charmwings. Lose all charms, lose wings.
Painting Time joints AJ action figure. Release was poorly. The joints brushables didn't seem too well received?
Probably anything glimmer wing because it looks like those will break.
Through the Mirror Sunset Shimmer & Twi - The flame leg Sunset is also rare already. Plaid stuff Twi probably will end up HTF too, it was walmart exclusive and there were already a ton of Sunsets at the time so nobody felt like caring about another. (But they do now)
It remains to be seen, as mentioned, how the toys will age. Will 'headbody different' attack certain Twilights making them undisplayable and bad? That kind of thing can generate rarity like how it's really hard to find a GOOD Starshine or Trickle. As a yard sale comber...broken stuff seems to be my domain so I'm faster to point it out or look at it in the store and go "well that is not going to last a week". Like the Nightmare Night #@%^* where she has the bags on her feet...well that bag on her head it's just balanced there! If you take her out of the package that bit will be gone for good in under 10 minutes with a child in the house. *To a degree with the actual show accurate Luna! Her crown comes off.
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Who's Amethyst Star?
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Who's Amethyst Star?
Amethyst Star is a FiM background pony who does have some blindbags, but she does not have a normal brushable toy. I assume Wings meant Diamond Mint?
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Who's Amethyst Star?
Amethyst Star is a FiM background pony who does have some blindbags, but she does not have a normal brushable toy. I assume Wings meant Diamond Mint?
Oh, Diamond Mint was all over the place here. Even Flower Wishes still shelf warms at TrU. Its the Princesses and the second wave Water Cuties that were never found. Certainly not paying scalper prices for them.
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Oh, Diamond Mint was all over the place here. Even Flower Wishes still shelf warms at TrU. Its the Princesses and the second wave Water Cuties that were never found. Certainly not paying scalper prices for them.
The Water Cuties were out in most main stores before I started collecting again, so I don't have Diamond Mint yet. But I still see Water Cuties Flower Wishes hanging around at Rite-Aid. I wanna get her at some point, but Rite-Aid doubles pony prices to $10. :/
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Perhaps most 'collection' only ponies like Minty, Roseluck, Helia, Lily Valley and of course Diamond Tiara and Silver Spoon. Also maybe the forelock ponies? Single releases like Flitterheart and Feathermay too.
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All About Soarin' - This one just came out and already nobody can find him.
He looks like a messed up Shining Armor but a peg instead of a uni.
My workplace isn't a toy store (it's a grocery store) and we've still got one sitting around. We got all of wave 2 right after we got wave 1 because we had a display for the release of the movie. I've already got one for display, but now you're making me think I should scoop him up and rehome him or keep him MoC.
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The wave with Soarin may just be taking a little while to show up every where. Some waves do that. We wait and wait and start disparring and then low and behold they show up en made. But it's hard to tell if that's what is going on or if the wave is really just going to be hard to find.
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Yeah, I wouldn't be too worried about Soarin just yet. He's only just been released, give him a chance to show up ;)
Starswirl's always been hard to find so I doubt that'll change.. probably the other early only-released-in-certain-places releases would be the same.. I agree w/ Taffeta that likely certain releases of the main 6 will be hard to find, too. Holly Dash strikes me as one of those that'll be easy to find in some places and hard to find in others, if that makes sense.
Plus, I wonder how hard it'll be in the future to find the main 6 without chopped-up hair, given how many of them have had their hair altered to be more ~*show accurate*~. I doubt it'll be that hard to find ones without cut hair, but it is something I wonder about, lol.
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Old stock idling on the pegs and shelves can hold up orders and/or shelving of new stock
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I think we should add non mane 6 ponies that, for the most part, only came in sets or were more expensive than the normal $5 ponies. (Maud Pie, Photo Finish, Songbird Serenade, etc.)
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Perhaps most 'collection' only ponies like Minty, Roseluck, Helia, Lily Valley and of course Diamond Tiara and Silver Spoon. Also maybe the forelock ponies? Single releases like Flitterheart and Feathermay too.
I am not sure about the set ponies. Aside from the fact that the 'sets' in G1 were quite popular and even though they weren't global, quite accessible to collectors now for low prices as individual ponies, we haven't factored in the role of China ebay seconds in this. I think that will affect the value of ponies although it might inspire a debate between those with and without the thing on the side of the leg and how to authenticate ponies and whether the ones from China 'count' in future times to come. The reason that comes up in this discussion is that those pack ponies were easy to get from China and on ebay for a long time.
However the set MIB, that's another matter. I think that's a possibility as some people will want to display in in pretty box form.
Flower Wishes and AJ of the water cuties here are constant shelf sitters. Diamond Mint was here in quantity but not for as long a time. But she was definitely quite available. I would say she had a normal availability whereas the aforementioned two are still on shelves after an abnormally long time.
I agree with Carrehz that different places will probably have different availability. I think Holly Dash will probably be quite available here for a while second hand when the kids who have her turn her over to the second hand market. That's because she was here in quantity for a period of months and then disappeared. However in places she didn't get to because of bad distribution, it will maybe be harder. She's actually one of the hardest to call but the fact people know already she was restricted on availability makes me wonder if she is going to become the next 'Mimic'. Mimic;s price difference between her and the rest of her set is stupidly high but that's because of years of people saying she's rare and paying those prices. Holly Dash is already talked about in this regard and G4 is still in stores. I think that if we don't want Holly Dash to go down Mimic's path, that;s something we need to address right now.
HTF and expensive are obviously going to be two different factors in this. As well as HTF and sought after, which are also two distinctly different categories.
I just thought of the ponies I got from Hamleys a few years ago...one was a CM Trixie and the other was something to do with Buttons? Where do they rate on this scale? I don't remember them being overly flooding stores and I remember there was a Rarity in the set as well. I think they had Breezies (and I am betting now that in some cases Breezies become more htf/sought after than the ponies).
Honey Rays and all her parts will probably appear MIB quite a lot as she is still on shelves here and very easy to find ;)
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Another thing I wonder about is if MOC/MIB G4s will be hard to find in the future. Will there be lots of the smaller Guardians of Harmony sets or wedding Lyra MOC or were most of them opened so fewer MOC will be available in 10 or 15 years?
Ponyfan
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I'd say mint on card/box will be just as easy to find as the equivalent in G3. There are a lot more adult collectors now than there was in G1 so more items are bought for the express purpose of keeping them mib. Though the mib version of the play school Cmc friends collection may be really hard to find mib because you can't display them mib and actually see the ponies inside.
Of course, it's really hard to guess these things when we are still in this gen. At any moment, Hasbro might decide to re-release a character previously hard to find. It's already happened a few times.
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Oh dang, I hadn't even thought about the Chinese factory seconds and how they could affect things. Yeah, that's a really good point, especially since a lot of the time there's really no way to prove if a pony was store-bought or a factory second. (I.e. I have a factory second Silver Spoon prototype who's missing her painted-on necklace, but there's no way to prove that she came like that and I didn't just use acetone to remove it) Hmm. I'm not sure how that could affect things but it is an interesting point.
I just thought of the ponies I got from Hamleys a few years ago...one was a CM Trixie and the other was something to do with Buttons? Where do they rate on this scale? I don't remember them being overly flooding stores and I remember there was a Rarity in the set as well. I think they had Breezies (and I am betting now that in some cases Breezies become more htf/sought after than the ponies).
Buttonbelle? Hmm.. I think those were somewhere in the middle? I don't remember them being EVERYWHERE but I'm pretty sure they showed up in at least two shops near me (keeping in mind I live in a one-horse town).
I agree that the Breezies'll probably end up harder to find (and esp. that they'll be sought-after - I know I went on a mad hunt to get them all and I couldn't have been the only one XD), and I'm putting my money on them ending up with broken/crushed/messed up wings. Those things are paper-thin ~_~
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I feel like Shine Bright Princess Luna will be hard to find. She came in that really expensive cardboard castle with all the (mostly G3 Ponyville) accessories. I think her horn or wings lit up when you pressed a button on her.
Here's a pic of the set from MLP Wiki (http://mylittlewiki.org/wiki/Princess_Luna#Canterlot_Castle):
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Her wings, she uses the Shine Bright Pegasus body. She might end up rare, she might not. Even if she does she might not be sought after too much - I know she's not exactly on my list. Now if they made a Shine Bright Luna based off the show design (which could also be used for Twi and Cadance), that I'd be interested in. I think in that set's case the building itself might be what's hard to find later on since it's cardboard and thus vulnerable to aging in ways that plastic isn't and also more vulnerable to parental discarding. I wonder if anyone's made scans of its parts...
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I would have to say the early ones when the G4 ponies started to come out! I had them all and they all sold for a pretty penny last year!
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I think G4s will probably follow the same trends as G3s for rarity. Ponies that weren't available in the USA will be some of the hardest to find. Several store exclusives will be harder to find(and the smaller/less popular the store, the rarer it'll be). Some of the later waves of a set(like the pearly ponies) will be harder to find due to the distribution tending to dwindle as a certain set comes out. Popular characters with only one release will also be harder to find, and much harder to find at decent prices.
MOC ponies will probably be what they are with the G3s - a significant percentage of ponies stayed on the card in collector hands so they're a lot easier to find. They'll be more valuable than the loose ones, but it's not going to be anything like with the G1s. There may be a large quantity of "show accurate" semi-customized ponies with haircuts or other things that are traditionally considered flaws to a collector. That may have some impact on the value of some ponies.
As for the market, I'd guess that value and rarity will coincide in some places, and drastically diverge in others. I'd expect that the most valuable ponies will be the unique(non-Mane 6) ones with very few releases, and those with spotty distribution. Since the Mane 6 have *so* many releases, and many of the releases are nearly identical to each other, I can't imagine a slightly different Pinkie Pie with accessories recycled from another set will bring in the big bucks. I think for the Mane 6, MOC/MIB will be more important because it can be *seriously* difficult to tell the difference between Mane 6 releases if all the ponies are loose.
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You know who I can't get my hands on? Sweetsong.
If anyone has one, I'm seriously looking.
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Probably some of the FS ponies.