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Pony Corral / Re: What it costs to buy an entire G1 collection - introducing the MLP Price Guide
« on: January 03, 2021, 03:52:33 PM »
Congrats on Creating! You have a monumental task ahead of you 
I have been working on a personal price guide for myself since I started collecting 23+ years ago. You would not believe the prices of some ponies back the day! The first Baby Bowtie seen on eBay.com sold for $152, the first Baby Cherry Jubilee seen on eBay.com sold for $325. (This was in the summer of 1998) The next Baby Bowtie on eBay sold for less than half that price a few weeks later. A few years back, I started to track prices of MOC & MIB, and my project grew from there into merchandise and other rare non often seen ponies. I now have a hard drive full of ended eBay auction screen shots of past auctions for a lot of interesting stuff I've come across in the past few years. I've found when the majority of people are looking for price checks, it's on the items that don't turn up very often for sale. (You'd be amazed at how many of the same ponies MOC turn up for sale over the years)
There is so much more to pricing ponies than what is just seen as the final sale price on eBay as price is just one touch point/factor. Here's a few challenges I've run into when creating my personal guide -
1) Ebay is only one source. There are just as many ponies sold on eBay as there are ponies sold by collectors on Facebook Groups, Instagram, Mercari, Etsy, Tradera, Gumtree, Kijiji, the Areana - to name only a few. And then there are all the different Ebays. Ebay France, eBay Spain, eBay Germany, Ebay Canada, Ebay UK, Ebay USA. There are so many places to buy ponies now!
2) How too take condition into account? Some auctions end high because the ponies is AMAZING. Some end low because they are in very played with condition. Some are SS's with no Rubs or a Ponies who normally have plasticizer breakdown, with no breakdown - some have horrible haircuts and some have no symbols. (I see that you have listings for those with and without accessories - very nice!!!)
3) How to take marketing of the eBay auction taken into account? This is a very difficult one to measure. You'll notice on eBay there's a seller who takes pictures of her ponies with cute little toys, with the ponies placed at 'artistic' angles, and they are priced at 3x's more than all other ponies for sale. There are other sellers who have a huge following of buyers because they sell incredible & amazing ponies/merch/accessories - while taking amazing photos. How would a price guide measure the price between an Italian Bowtie being sold from those sellers (with incredible pictures, and an internet following) compared to an Italian Bowtie I might sell (meh pictures & no following)? There was the storage auctions MIB & MOCs auctions last year - someone in San Diego found a storage locker with a large large number of MOC & MIB ponies - those auctions all ended high because they were well publicized. But if another seller had only 1-2 MOC ponies selling at the same time, they'd get lower bids because they don't have the publicity of the other seller.
4) Does the seller ship internationally? Not the cost of international shipping, but the act of shipping internationally. If a pony is listed as only shipping to one country, that will limit the number of bidders, but if the same pony is listed with international shipping - now, collectors worldwide can bid.
5) The cost of international shipping. One seller is able to send a single pony for £8 to the USA from the UK. A different seller for the same pony will charge £22. Same for USA sellers - some use the GPS service, which is expensive (cost $75 CAD to send one package to me last summer) and some seller use USPS to determine the shipping price, which is half the price of GPS. That would effect some peoples buying.
6) The sold price on eBay isn't always the true selling price. I can't tell you the number of auctions I've seen get bid up high, end, then are relisted a week later with the same pictures. The assumption is the bidder didn't pay, but eBay doesn't remove the sold auction from the sold listings. This is why for my personal price guide I didn't include the majority of the Storage Auction MOC's & MIB's - there was too much uncertainty in the prices they sold at. Or if they were offered to the second high bidder.
7) Fluctuations in prices. This is my greatest challenge right now with my personal guide. At the moment prices are ASTRONOMICAL compared to where they were even a year ago. Ponies that sold for $30 USD in 2019 are now selling minimum $130 USD. For ponies that only turn up once every blue moon, this causes issues with pricing. G3 Ribbons and Hearts pony is an example. (note, I can't remember exact prices as I don't have my hard drive with me at the moment, so the below are examples) I have a few completed eBay auctions of her selling for $300 from 2017/8. The next one that sold in 2019 went for over $450. What's her price then, is it the average of the three auctions, or is it the higher of the three, or is it...?
There might be a month where 4 Sweet Scoops turns up for sale, and then it might be 2 years before the next Sweet Scoops turns up for auction. What in the world would be the right price for her? Would it be the price from 2 years ago, or would it be much much higher now that there's pent up demand?
There's a seller on eBay who's found old store stock - MIP Medley Charm Bracelet with a comb, who lists a new one each week (for 3-4 days auctions). Prices for the ended auctions are all over the place - some end at $86 and a week later one will end for $50, then the next one for $79, then the one after that for the starting bid of $45 (I won this one), then the one after that has no bids. I don't completely understand it, and I have no idea how to take this into account for my own guide. I assume that some weeks more people are online and on eBay? But then, what in the world is happening to bring or take them away from eBay? And then why eBay, and not the other sites they can buy?? And, where are the second high bidders of those auctions that sold high, why aren't they bidding on the one listed the following week? So many questions!!
8) Lots/bundles of ponies. This was one of the first problems I came across back in 1997 - what if there was a lot of ponies that sold for $50 and it had Mimic in the lot, and the rest of the lot was common ponies. I knew the lot sold for $50 because of Mimic, but I couldn't count it in my price guide because of the other ponies sold with it. This can get frustrating because sometimes I only saw some ponies being sold in lots!! Lavender Woosie for years I swear I only saw in lots for sale, but never on its own. How in the world do I figure out a price for her??? Is it the price of the lot? Is it the price of each pony in the lots with the remainder of the amount paid for the lot being the price paid for her?
9) Auction or Buy it now? Did someone buy the BIN because they needed a gift and were desperate? Or were they patience and hoped for a lower price by bidding on an auction? Is the BIN the true value, or is the auction the true value? There can huge variation in the two type of eBay buying methods for pricing. Or did the seller not research before listing and sold their Licensing show Pinkie pie for $25 USD because they'd be happy for $25 USD? (I personally try not to include Buy It Now's for my guide unless I've seen others of the same item sell for around the same price, and if it stayed listed for a few days (i.e. didn't sell in the first hour of listing). I really only include BINs for items that don't turn up too often)
10) Unsolds - how many times was the pony listed before it sold? How many of the pony are currently listed and then how many of those remain unsold at the end of the auction period? There might be 3-4 Rainbow Windy's that are sold, but there might be 15-20 Rainbow Windy's unsold for the same period.
11) Items I've bought. I don't include anything I've bid on, unless I was grossly outbid. Meaning, If I bid $5, and the item sold for $125, I would include. But, if I bid $120, and it went for $125, I would not include. This is to remove any accusation of price fixing. (I've been around long enough to have heard many rumours about this)
Now, as you can tell Pony Economics is one of my FAVOURITE topics of all time. If I could have studied this in University, I would have had a building named after me at this point (or a least a small memorial plaque in a forgotten hallway). I post these challenges not to dismay you on your goal of creating an online price guide, but to bring them up before they become bigger challenges while you are creating. I maybe the only person who has questions around these things, and if I am, that's great!!
While creating, You're going to come across ponies that you thought weren't worth to much, seller better than expected! Another pony person who was working on a similar project back in the early 2000's found out that the Bride Pony from year 10 sold every time she was listed, which she thought was strange because she was such a common pony back then! You'll also find ponies that you thought were hard to find, turn up for sale - a lot.
Any questions - give me a shout
I have been working on a personal price guide for myself since I started collecting 23+ years ago. You would not believe the prices of some ponies back the day! The first Baby Bowtie seen on eBay.com sold for $152, the first Baby Cherry Jubilee seen on eBay.com sold for $325. (This was in the summer of 1998) The next Baby Bowtie on eBay sold for less than half that price a few weeks later. A few years back, I started to track prices of MOC & MIB, and my project grew from there into merchandise and other rare non often seen ponies. I now have a hard drive full of ended eBay auction screen shots of past auctions for a lot of interesting stuff I've come across in the past few years. I've found when the majority of people are looking for price checks, it's on the items that don't turn up very often for sale. (You'd be amazed at how many of the same ponies MOC turn up for sale over the years)
There is so much more to pricing ponies than what is just seen as the final sale price on eBay as price is just one touch point/factor. Here's a few challenges I've run into when creating my personal guide -
1) Ebay is only one source. There are just as many ponies sold on eBay as there are ponies sold by collectors on Facebook Groups, Instagram, Mercari, Etsy, Tradera, Gumtree, Kijiji, the Areana - to name only a few. And then there are all the different Ebays. Ebay France, eBay Spain, eBay Germany, Ebay Canada, Ebay UK, Ebay USA. There are so many places to buy ponies now!
2) How too take condition into account? Some auctions end high because the ponies is AMAZING. Some end low because they are in very played with condition. Some are SS's with no Rubs or a Ponies who normally have plasticizer breakdown, with no breakdown - some have horrible haircuts and some have no symbols. (I see that you have listings for those with and without accessories - very nice!!!)
3) How to take marketing of the eBay auction taken into account? This is a very difficult one to measure. You'll notice on eBay there's a seller who takes pictures of her ponies with cute little toys, with the ponies placed at 'artistic' angles, and they are priced at 3x's more than all other ponies for sale. There are other sellers who have a huge following of buyers because they sell incredible & amazing ponies/merch/accessories - while taking amazing photos. How would a price guide measure the price between an Italian Bowtie being sold from those sellers (with incredible pictures, and an internet following) compared to an Italian Bowtie I might sell (meh pictures & no following)? There was the storage auctions MIB & MOCs auctions last year - someone in San Diego found a storage locker with a large large number of MOC & MIB ponies - those auctions all ended high because they were well publicized. But if another seller had only 1-2 MOC ponies selling at the same time, they'd get lower bids because they don't have the publicity of the other seller.
4) Does the seller ship internationally? Not the cost of international shipping, but the act of shipping internationally. If a pony is listed as only shipping to one country, that will limit the number of bidders, but if the same pony is listed with international shipping - now, collectors worldwide can bid.
5) The cost of international shipping. One seller is able to send a single pony for £8 to the USA from the UK. A different seller for the same pony will charge £22. Same for USA sellers - some use the GPS service, which is expensive (cost $75 CAD to send one package to me last summer) and some seller use USPS to determine the shipping price, which is half the price of GPS. That would effect some peoples buying.
6) The sold price on eBay isn't always the true selling price. I can't tell you the number of auctions I've seen get bid up high, end, then are relisted a week later with the same pictures. The assumption is the bidder didn't pay, but eBay doesn't remove the sold auction from the sold listings. This is why for my personal price guide I didn't include the majority of the Storage Auction MOC's & MIB's - there was too much uncertainty in the prices they sold at. Or if they were offered to the second high bidder.
7) Fluctuations in prices. This is my greatest challenge right now with my personal guide. At the moment prices are ASTRONOMICAL compared to where they were even a year ago. Ponies that sold for $30 USD in 2019 are now selling minimum $130 USD. For ponies that only turn up once every blue moon, this causes issues with pricing. G3 Ribbons and Hearts pony is an example. (note, I can't remember exact prices as I don't have my hard drive with me at the moment, so the below are examples) I have a few completed eBay auctions of her selling for $300 from 2017/8. The next one that sold in 2019 went for over $450. What's her price then, is it the average of the three auctions, or is it the higher of the three, or is it...?
There might be a month where 4 Sweet Scoops turns up for sale, and then it might be 2 years before the next Sweet Scoops turns up for auction. What in the world would be the right price for her? Would it be the price from 2 years ago, or would it be much much higher now that there's pent up demand?
There's a seller on eBay who's found old store stock - MIP Medley Charm Bracelet with a comb, who lists a new one each week (for 3-4 days auctions). Prices for the ended auctions are all over the place - some end at $86 and a week later one will end for $50, then the next one for $79, then the one after that for the starting bid of $45 (I won this one), then the one after that has no bids. I don't completely understand it, and I have no idea how to take this into account for my own guide. I assume that some weeks more people are online and on eBay? But then, what in the world is happening to bring or take them away from eBay? And then why eBay, and not the other sites they can buy?? And, where are the second high bidders of those auctions that sold high, why aren't they bidding on the one listed the following week? So many questions!!
8) Lots/bundles of ponies. This was one of the first problems I came across back in 1997 - what if there was a lot of ponies that sold for $50 and it had Mimic in the lot, and the rest of the lot was common ponies. I knew the lot sold for $50 because of Mimic, but I couldn't count it in my price guide because of the other ponies sold with it. This can get frustrating because sometimes I only saw some ponies being sold in lots!! Lavender Woosie for years I swear I only saw in lots for sale, but never on its own. How in the world do I figure out a price for her??? Is it the price of the lot? Is it the price of each pony in the lots with the remainder of the amount paid for the lot being the price paid for her?
9) Auction or Buy it now? Did someone buy the BIN because they needed a gift and were desperate? Or were they patience and hoped for a lower price by bidding on an auction? Is the BIN the true value, or is the auction the true value? There can huge variation in the two type of eBay buying methods for pricing. Or did the seller not research before listing and sold their Licensing show Pinkie pie for $25 USD because they'd be happy for $25 USD? (I personally try not to include Buy It Now's for my guide unless I've seen others of the same item sell for around the same price, and if it stayed listed for a few days (i.e. didn't sell in the first hour of listing). I really only include BINs for items that don't turn up too often)
10) Unsolds - how many times was the pony listed before it sold? How many of the pony are currently listed and then how many of those remain unsold at the end of the auction period? There might be 3-4 Rainbow Windy's that are sold, but there might be 15-20 Rainbow Windy's unsold for the same period.
11) Items I've bought. I don't include anything I've bid on, unless I was grossly outbid. Meaning, If I bid $5, and the item sold for $125, I would include. But, if I bid $120, and it went for $125, I would not include. This is to remove any accusation of price fixing. (I've been around long enough to have heard many rumours about this)
Now, as you can tell Pony Economics is one of my FAVOURITE topics of all time. If I could have studied this in University, I would have had a building named after me at this point (or a least a small memorial plaque in a forgotten hallway). I post these challenges not to dismay you on your goal of creating an online price guide, but to bring them up before they become bigger challenges while you are creating. I maybe the only person who has questions around these things, and if I am, that's great!!
While creating, You're going to come across ponies that you thought weren't worth to much, seller better than expected! Another pony person who was working on a similar project back in the early 2000's found out that the Bride Pony from year 10 sold every time she was listed, which she thought was strange because she was such a common pony back then! You'll also find ponies that you thought were hard to find, turn up for sale - a lot.
Any questions - give me a shout