Week of Mar 30: COVID-19 info, facts & updates

[Taffeta]

That is possibly the most serious press conference I've ever seen Trump give, not least giving so much time to his science people. Nice to see that US universities working with Imperial as well on the modelling, gives a sense of this as a truly global battle going on against this thing. It's pretty much the same modelling the globe over with everyone trying to beat the curve, but it seems weird that it's only just being presented at a WH conference now.

On the subject of UK ventilator numbers, not sure why Dr Birx mentioned it, because the modelling here suggests a best case death toll 10x lower than the US, and a worst case death toll 9x lower than the US. So it's all relative. You need more ventilators. You have more people - 5x more. More people spread more disease more easily. It's not rocket science, it's just logistics. (Although I do hope that the govt are going to get the extras they are talking about, because, you know, it never hurts xD).

In the UK - health people still positive despite jump in the death figures, they've been pretty blunt with us from the start in that it takes time to bring down numbers and the first one to come down is infections...last one is always deaths :/ so it's going to be grim everywhere for a while. But one thing most people in the UK agree on is the importance of the NHS, and I think that's helping people stay home.

Though one theory for the jump is one of the labs is closed over the weekend. *sigh*. Efficiency. It happened last week as well though so may well be the reason. The number of new cases is not hugely higher than the last few days which the science people think is a very very faint good sign and at least makes us feel like sitting at home means something, even if it's a false positive or just the very first steps.

Also no new casualties in my local area, although numbers in the midlands overall are going up, the spread seems to be getting higher in Birmingham and now Worcestershire which is still west mids but moving away from here.

Some people theorising spikes in Wolverhampton and Liverpool may connect to European football games played against Spanish teams in the European cups before the lockdown of sport - it's certainly true that 3000 Spanish fans were in Liverpool for that game with nobody seeming that bothered about it, and Wolves were playing at Espanyol so people would've been over there as well - another 3000. It's a bit of a no brainer and should never have happened. It was questioned at the time (the Liverpool game anyway) by the media, but nobody thought it should be called off :/

The Wolves game could also explain some of the numbers here because a lot of Wolves fans spill over to this area as well.

UK has still not closed its borders, don't expect it to close them either.

Talk of an app to track people like in Singapore and Korea, you can imagine how popular that is with the UK population already fearful of big brother/police state measures (as some bits of govt lockdown are being seen). There have been some bizarre moments where police have tried to stop people buying easter eggs as they are 'not essential' even though the new law does not specify what food can be bought.

In sad news a 13 year old boy died in hospital in London of the virus, with no known underlying health condition.

Just a heads up that yes, kids can get this and they can get it badly enough to die of it, even if it is rare, so it's really important they have the same level of safety instruction as everyone else.

Now I'm just curious to see whether the ventilators they keep talking about Dyson and JCB etc making actually come into production and use...

[Ponyfan]

The latest numbers for my county were released 100 total cases and 2 deaths. We were at 77 cases yesterday.



Ponyfan

[Barnacle_lady]

The latest up here that schools, restaurants and gyms stay closed until April 28. And a week before it will be told if its going to take any longer.  The government also offers to pay the salaries of affected companies as long as they don't fire people.
And our death figure has gone up very fast. We are now at 1173 deaths. Every day they tell us the numbers of that day but it seems that not everyone is reported the same day people die.
4 more weeks at home, not cool. I am used to stay home with jobs on and off. But normally there are stores open and public transport rides a normal schedule. The only trip I have is to the supermarket where I have to be lucky to get inside because limited people are allowed. And to one of my friends. We started to cook for each other since there are no restaurants open.

[Taffeta]

Not wholly different here from what's going on in the NL.

Numbers are up here again but we've been told to expect it to continue to do that over the next couple of weeks.
2 new deaths in the local NHS trust. But an article in the local media from one of the people active at the top of our NHS trust - we apparently have equipment, and are doing fine so far, and most importantly patients are recovering and being discharged, even though the govt are not releasing those stats.

Local colleges in the midlands are gathering science gear like goggles to send out to hospitals to boost their ppe. Local food outlets/catering companies are making food for nhs staff, are allowing public to sponsor a meal for nhs workers which is keeping the business running as well as supporting the people on the front line.

Production of domestic new ventilators and CPAP devices meant to go into process this week. CPAP ones already have clearance. Not sure the ventilators do yet but they're projecting 10,000 to be produced.

A lot of questions about testing, PPE and business support still.

In the Midlands the leaders from Muslim communities are urging their people to stay home after they've been continuing to gather despite the closure of shops. The Black Country, Birmingham and surrounds have large ethnic communities and there's a very real concern they're being hit disproportionately hard because of the cultural community nature.

Lockdown is starting to get to my mother. We're having so much trouble getting shopping slots because of the demand as well, but I'm going to keep persevering since up to now I'm the only one who's managed to get us slots.

Oh, and our washing machine is basically at death's door. Been saying for MONTHS it needs looking at., Now we're going to have to have someone come on Friday INTO THE HOUSE to look at it, and none of us are happy about it, but it's a bit unavoidable.

[lonewolf]

Kansas is up to 482, but still at 10 deaths.
This  would usually be a story the news would ignore, but because of what the truck was carrying... https://www.wibw.com/content/news/Truck-hauling-toilet-paper-catches-fire-on-Texas-interstate--569289371.html

[Taffeta]

Managed to get a delivery slot.

The excitement is like winning an ebay auction.

Seriously.

Is delivery as crazy in other countries right now?

[Ponyfan]

New numbers for my county. 108 cases, 3 deaths and 10 people recovered from the virus.

A daycare is now a possible exposure site.

The hoarding seems to have slowed down but stores are still out of flour, rubbing alcohol and a few other things. There are police in the stores to make sure people don't try to buy more than the limit.

My parents have starting wearing gloves when they go to the store and more people are wearing first aid masks(not the N95 ones)

I have been extra careful about touching my face and have been using my hand sanitizer more often. I used it quite a few times today when I went to the store. I also wash more hands more. 

I tried to maintain safe social distancing when I went to the store but even though I avoid getting close to other people a few people still passed really close to me.

Officially the city's stay at home order is supposed to end Friday but I think the mayor will extend it. 


Ponyfan






 

[toyjunky]

Southern California (Orange County area)

State:9,551 cases/206 deaths
County: 606 cases/10 deaths
City: 56 cases

What has changed in the last 24 hours:
1) Governor Newsom and California’s schools chief  Tony Thurmond have recommended that schools be closed physically (online distance learning only) for the remainder of the school year (press conference was today). Official announcements are already starting to be made today from the local school districts in our city acknowledging the physical closure for remainder of the school year (to be clear, schools are open, just online access only from home which has now been extended).

2)Some grocery stores are starting to hand out free bags.(yay)
Instead of having to pay for one or have people bring their own and have the clerks bag them.

Okay, so personally I always viewed this as a dynamic when we were forced into the reusable bags a year ago. Especially now though, it definitely brings up a point of why the whole reusable bags thing is problematic. People handle them at home, then hand them to clerks, then hand them back, etc (makes for a giant germ factory for all involved).

[mlp4me]

Northeast Wisconsin, near Green Bay.
 We continue with toilet paper shortages...

More people outside walking. Distance seems to be sinking in for most people. Our carrier in this area went on a cruise to Greece and came back... so far we're at 12 confirmed cases in my county all by communal spread. Unsure how many tests pending in state.

[Gator]

I don't know why we didn't find out sooner, maybe they were trying to hide it, but my dad's cousin and wife had/have covid 19.  He said his wife was very sick but they are both improving.  That's all we've been told, but at least they are on the mend.  So, yeah, really starting to hit closer to home.  Georgia, USA to go into shelter in place tomorrow or Friday, I forget which.  But of course I still have to work.

[LadyMoondancer]

My mom is taking the pandemic pretty seriously, but all the same today she was telling me how she gave her friend Dorothy some extra soup she had, and another friend brought her over some extra mac & cheese . . . These people are all 70+, they should be hunkered down, not going out.  I guess this is what it feels like to be a parent to your parent.

In other news, I had a sore throat today and slight shortness of breath, so I might be coming down with coronavirus.  I'm already telecommuting and staying away from everyone, so I'll keep doing that unless it becomes worse.

[Taffeta]

Stay safe and take care, LM. Hope you feel better soon (whatever it is).

UK update. 4300ish new cases, 569 new deaths, none of the latter in my immediate health trust area (whose total death tally is currently combined at 14, its no longer known which of those apply to our hospital and which to the wider county).

They're not pretty numbers but I take some comfort they're not stupidly higher than yesterday.

Because the UK is four countries, that total is all four combined. Separate stats are like this:

163 thousand ish tests done. 33,718 positive results. 2921 people overall have died after testing positive for coronavirus.

Important notes:

Spoiler

as PHE people have admitted, we don't know how many died OF covid19 since no post mortems are done and the stats are being conflated unhelpfully between people who died OF it and people who died WITH it.
UK are currently only testing patients who require hospital admission/care, so no mild cases are being tested unless there's a specific risk/reason for them to be done. Hence there are almost certainly 10x as many mild cases in the community that are not included in the statistics. Health care workers are now being tested but I am not sure the % that comprises.
The UK does not release figures of those recovered and discharged from hospital, so this number is unknown. However official number of cases being treated in hospital is somewhere just over 12,000, so maybe it can be guessed about 20,000 people have recovered or are recovering at home.

In context, the overall UK population is a little bigger than Italy and 20+ million bigger than Spain, smaller than France and Germany and about 5x smaller than the US, people are NOT evenly distributed between the devolved nations and the most populous area is the South East. London has about 7 or 8 million people, the second biggest city Birmingham has just over 1 million..

England: 28,221 cases, 2698 deaths (population 53 million)

Scotland: 2602 cases, 126 deaths (population 5.3 million)
https://www.gov.scot/coronavirus-covid-19/
Wales: 2121 cases, 117 deaths (population 3.1 million)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51888681
NI: 774 cases, 36 deaths (population 1.8 million)
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-updates-six-further-deaths-in-northern-ireland-and-85-new-covid-19-cases-39096431.html

I give the data because it might explain why there are some concerns at the moment about the rise in Wales.  Which is not great where I am because on the one side we have the rising curve of Birmingham and the West Mids and on the other, Wales. Yay.

The last 2 days have seen 4000+ cases but I looked at the calendar and realised these are also cases that would have probably happened right around the time before/at full lockdown/as a result of the mad weekend everyone decided to go to beaches and stuff to enjoy the sun (Sigh). So it's still at a point before we see whether lockdown actually made a difference.

Stores are starting to get antsy about what is essential in shopping.

Much pressure on govt atm to increase testing esp of NHS staff which has at least begun.

Boris still apparently sick. Health secretary back from isolation and giving today's press conference. He seems pretty well recovered.

 I'm not a huge fan of this govt but listening to Hancock is better than Gove, Jenrick or Sharma attempting to talk about stuff they don't know. Although when he said "the third pillar" and held up two fingers, I began to despair a little...

[brightberry]

Our county now enforces social distancing with penalties of $1000 fine or jail time.  The county police are going to stores & parks and announcing it over megaphone in parking lots. 

And yet, I still see people out in groups and people shopping with their partners. So, I suspect there will be tickets given and lots of angry citizens.

I do wonder how they'll practice social distancing in jail.


Edit:
I do agree with the new policy.  Our county hospitals are not big enough to deal with a large number of sick people and the neighboring counties have their own to deal with.  Some people just don't understand how dangerous a situation they could be in if they need hospital care.

[Koudoawaia]

770 cases in Kentucky now with out of state travelers required to quarantine for 14 days before they can go anywhere.

[lonewolf]

Kansas is now up to 552 cases and 13 deaths.
You can't help but feel hopeless when you hear what the forecasted amount of deaths in the US is.