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I can't help with exact prices, but I imagine the first two on your list will have higher prices than Sugar Sweet. Sugar Sweet is the only one of this set I have MIB and I can't remember her being very expensive though it was about ten years ago..she's not a childhood pony for me so she must have been a really good deal for me to have bought her. The other two seem more sought after loose, maybe because they were sold haphazardly in some places. Lemon Treats especially. Even with the bent box flap I don't suppose her value will be knocked much.Do any of them have extras (is it make up with this set) in the box?I think Sugar Sweet is quite common in the US box - weirdly less common in the European box, though I see more European versions of Gingerbread/Molasses and Sugar Apple. In the UK we had both boxes because of Woolworths importing US ones, so I am not sure if the different box types matter in terms of price of this set or whether it literally depends on the individual pony.
In terms of rarity, I would guess (but wait for other people's views too) that Lemon Treats is probably the more sought after - but I would say buy the one you like most, if you think the price is a fair one. It's your money so you have to be happy with what you get, not just because it's the rarest on offer I am loath to make price estimates because they fluctuate and also because the $/£ relationship has changed a lot in the last few years, the same amount in £ is no longer what it was in $...I think $250 would be high though. I don't think there are many MIB ponies from the later years that merit over $200...