What G4 toys do you think will be HTF in the future?

[Taffeta]

Perhaps most 'collection' only ponies like Minty, Roseluck, Helia, Lily Valley and of course Diamond Tiara and Silver Spoon. Also maybe the forelock ponies? Single releases like Flitterheart and Feathermay too.

I am not sure about the set ponies. Aside from the fact that the 'sets' in G1 were quite popular and even though they weren't global, quite accessible to collectors now for low prices as individual ponies, we haven't factored in the role of China ebay seconds in this. I think that will affect the value of ponies although it might inspire a debate between those with and without the thing on the side of the leg and how to authenticate ponies and whether the ones from China 'count' in future times to come. The reason that comes up in this discussion is that those pack ponies were easy to get from China and on ebay for a long time.

However the set MIB, that's another matter. I think that's a possibility as some people will want to display in in pretty box form.

Flower Wishes and AJ of the water cuties here are constant shelf sitters. Diamond Mint was here in quantity but not for as long a time. But she was definitely quite available. I would say she had a normal availability whereas the aforementioned two are still on shelves after an abnormally long time.

I agree with Carrehz that different places will probably have different availability. I think Holly Dash will probably be quite available here for a while second hand when the kids who have her turn her over to the second hand market. That's because she was here in quantity for a period of months and then disappeared. However in places she didn't get to because of bad distribution, it will maybe be harder. She's actually one of the hardest to call but the fact people know already she was restricted on availability makes me wonder if she is going to become the next 'Mimic'. Mimic;s price difference between her and the rest of her set is stupidly high but that's because of years of people saying she's rare and paying those prices. Holly Dash is already talked about in this regard and G4 is still in stores. I think that if we don't want Holly Dash to go down Mimic's path, that;s something we need to address right now.

HTF and expensive are obviously going to be two different factors in this. As well as HTF and sought after, which are also two distinctly different categories.

I just thought of the ponies I got from Hamleys a few years ago...one was a CM Trixie and the other was something to do with Buttons? Where do they rate on this scale? I don't remember them being overly flooding stores and I remember there was a Rarity in the set as well. I think they had Breezies (and I am betting now that in some cases Breezies become more htf/sought after than the ponies).

Honey Rays and all her parts will probably appear MIB quite a lot as she is still on shelves here and very easy to find  

[Ponyfan]

Another thing I wonder about is if MOC/MIB G4s will be hard to find in the future. Will there be lots of the smaller Guardians of Harmony  sets or wedding Lyra MOC or were most of them opened so fewer MOC will be available in 10 or 15 years?

Ponyfan

[Sunset]

I'd say mint on card/box will be just as easy to find as the equivalent in G3.  There are a lot more adult collectors now than there was in G1 so more items are bought for the express purpose of keeping them mib.  Though the mib version of the play school Cmc friends collection may be really hard to find mib because you can't display them mib and actually see the ponies inside.

Of course, it's really hard to guess these things when we are still in this gen.  At any moment, Hasbro might decide to re-release a character previously hard to find.  It's already happened a few times.

[Carrehz]

Oh dang, I hadn't even thought about the Chinese factory seconds and how they could affect things. Yeah, that's a really good point, especially since a lot of the time there's really no way to prove if a pony was store-bought or a factory second. (I.e. I have a factory second Silver Spoon prototype who's missing her painted-on necklace, but there's no way to prove that she came like that and I didn't just use acetone to remove it) Hmm. I'm not sure how that could affect things but it is an interesting point.

I just thought of the ponies I got from Hamleys a few years ago...one was a CM Trixie and the other was something to do with Buttons? Where do they rate on this scale? I don't remember them being overly flooding stores and I remember there was a Rarity in the set as well. I think they had Breezies (and I am betting now that in some cases Breezies become more htf/sought after than the ponies).

Buttonbelle? Hmm.. I think those were somewhere in the middle? I don't remember them being EVERYWHERE but I'm pretty sure they showed up in at least two shops near me (keeping in mind I live in a one-horse town).

I agree that the Breezies'll probably end up harder to find (and esp. that they'll be sought-after - I know I went on a mad hunt to get them all and I couldn't have been the only one ), and I'm putting my money on them ending up with broken/crushed/messed up wings. Those things are paper-thin ~_~

[LadyMoondancer]

I feel like Shine Bright Princess Luna will be hard to find.  She came in that really expensive cardboard castle with all the (mostly G3 Ponyville) accessories.  I think her horn or wings lit up when you pressed a button on her.

Here's a pic of the set from MLP Wiki:

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[ZeldaTheSwordsman]

Her wings, she uses the Shine Bright Pegasus body. She might end up rare, she might not. Even if she does she might not be sought after too much - I know she's not exactly on my list. Now if they made a Shine Bright Luna based off the show design (which could also be used for Twi and Cadance), that I'd be interested in. I think in that set's case the building itself might be what's hard to find later on since it's cardboard and thus vulnerable to aging in ways that plastic isn't and also more vulnerable to parental discarding. I wonder if anyone's made scans of its parts...

[achab1984]

I would have to say the early ones when the G4 ponies started to come out! I had them all and they all sold for a pretty penny last year!

[goddessofpeep]

I think G4s will probably follow the same trends as G3s for rarity.  Ponies that weren't available in the USA will be some of the hardest to find.  Several store exclusives will be harder to find(and the smaller/less popular the store, the rarer it'll be).  Some of the later waves of a set(like the pearly ponies) will be harder to find due to the distribution tending to dwindle as a certain set comes out.  Popular characters with only one release will also be harder to find, and much harder to find at decent prices. 

MOC ponies will probably be what they are with the G3s - a significant percentage of ponies stayed on the card in collector hands so they're a lot easier to find.  They'll be more valuable than the loose ones, but it's not going to be anything like with the G1s.  There may be a large quantity of "show accurate" semi-customized ponies with haircuts or other things that are traditionally considered flaws to a collector.  That may have some impact on the value of some ponies. 

As for the market, I'd guess that value and rarity will coincide in some places, and drastically diverge in others.  I'd expect that the most valuable ponies will be the unique(non-Mane 6) ones with very few releases, and those with spotty distribution.  Since the Mane 6 have *so* many releases, and many of the releases are nearly identical to each other, I can't imagine a slightly different Pinkie Pie with accessories recycled from another set will bring in the big bucks.  I think for the Mane 6, MOC/MIB will be more important because it can be *seriously* difficult to tell the difference between Mane 6 releases if all the ponies are loose.

[Stormness_1]

You know who I can't get my hands on? Sweetsong.

If anyone has one, I'm seriously looking.

[Leave a Whisper]

Probably some of the FS ponies.